How to make money horse racing

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Horse Racing form analysis systems and methods for finding winners The things you need to know! Plus:-Free tips for the placepot-free daily tips How to make money horse racing, featuring form analysis systems and methods for finding winners, "value" in betting, free tips for the placepot here in England each Saturday, a tipping section for U.K. racing, a database of horse racing reference info and a section on all-weather racing.

We will be looking at the placepot (known in some countries as the place accumulator) as I believe it offers good overall value. I have recently added a new tipping section for U.K. racing with my daily tips. For the punters I have created a section on horse racing and sports betting where for your convenience you can place all your bets from that page. There are links to bookmakers and the exchanges.

On the horse rcing database pages I have now added full statistcs for Sires which should prove to be of great help to race analysts and punters alike.

How to Make Money Horse Racing is divided into 4 parts and the horse racing database is in 6 parts.

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form analysis systems Value in betting & Daily Tips betting & latest events The weekly newsletter. Webmasters please click on the trafficzap banner and join for free!! You will be amazed at the flow of traffic that will be generated!! HorseTraffic Page Exchange-Double traffic to your horse site! My name is Brian Gough and for my entire life, well since a young age at least, I have keenly followed horse racing, from riding work at the race track in the mornings, to betting on the horses and at a later stage in life owning race horses as well. I spent many years watching countless races and studying form in an effort to learn what it is that one must look for, what the factors are that need to be taken note of, in other words developing a method or strategy for finding winners. I believe I have become a good race analyst and therefore decided to devote a number of pages on my website to horse racing and hopefully be able to share with my visitors whatever knowledge I have accumulated through my years of experience.  The steps to be taken that I have outlined below are without doubt the factors that affect the outcome of any horse race. Study those parameters and you will uncover the most likely winners of any race. Obviously though, an individual's interpretation of the facts will vary, and also things happen in racing such as, being slowly away, getting boxed in, running wide, bumping and boring during a race or even errors of judgement by a jockey taking wrong options and perhaps making his run too early or too late. Those are things that cannot be taken into account! Part 1:-form analysis systems and methods for finding winners. If you've ever wondered why some people seem to have all the luck in the world when you can't find a winner for love nor money, it's time to take note of this ... Remember this:-you get luck when good preparation and a good opportunity cross paths! Form study........I believe there is quite simply no substitute for form study. The more time you can devote to it, the more successful you will be at finding winners. The problem though, is that sometimes people are not exactly sure what to look for and also time is a problem for many people. I will to the best of my ability tell you exactly what form study entails, and what to look for in finding winners. You will see that if you approach it systematically, it need not be as daunting a task or as time consuming as you might think. I believe there are 9 steps to take to find the most likely winners!

1. The horse must be fit and well.

• I think that I can safely say that all trainers take their horses to the race track very close to perfect fitness and in good condition. They simply cannot risk their horses future by being in an unfit state and possibly risking injuring them in some way. There are times though when a horse, although fit, is just not totally sharp. And bear in mind that if a horse is just 1 second off it's best, that is about 5 lengths! You should ideally have a look at the horse before the race preferably in the flesh at the racecourse or at least on television. Unfortunately that is often not possible, but if you can you might just see little tell tale signs that all is not 'right', or that the horse in fact looks very well. Obviously though, one needs to know what to look for!
• Otherwise, if it is an exposed horse, you can look back to see any patterns in the running of that horse e.g. does the horse come out fresh after a break or does he usually need a couple of runs? Or does the horse seem at it's best when running very frequently? Perhaps at certain times of the year? Anything that will give you a clue! Basically though, you must assume that the horse is fit if you have nothing else to go by.

2. The horse must be 'in form'.

• I feel I must say something about "form" and very briefly what it is (as I see it that is), or for that matter what it is not! What it is not, or not necessarily anyway, is the string of 1,2,3's or 0's next to a horse's name. Those, as you obviously already will know, are simply the horse's finishing positions for it's last few runs. However if the horse has recorded a couple of placed runs in its last 2 or 3 races, that does usually at least show that the horse is fit and well at the moment providing those races were recent. And of course that is one of the essentials i.e. the horse must be fit and well to give of it's best.

• If a horse has been running up to it's best in recent races it is considered as being "in form". Be careful with this though, as a horse might well have been producing the best it can over what might have been a somewhat unsuitable distance or on the wrong going, or both, or more importantly in too high a class of race for it's level of ability! Conversely, one often hears people say (even sometimes those who should know better ), "the horse has got good form". Meanwhile very often the "good form" they are referring to was possibly a 1st, 2nd or 3rd placing on somewhat different going or at a different distance or most importantly in lower class levels or a combination of those factors, than for the upcoming race under discussion.

• An important thing to remember when looking at form, is to never make excuses for beaten horses, the exception being obvious and reported incidents which had drastically affected a horse's chances. So if a horse suddenly produces a 'bad' run amoungst otherwise good form, then have a look to see if there was an obvious reason. If not, then take it as a bad run.

3. The state of the going.

• Next to fitness, the going preference of individual horses is the most important factor in determining whether they will produce their best form in a particular race. Phil Bull, the founder of Timeform used to say that the state of the ground was the most important fact a punter needs to know before having a bet on a horse. A liking for certain going can improve a horse's performance by many pounds. Conversely, dislike of the prevailing going, if pronounced enough, can ruin a horses chance of winning a race completely. Horses are built in different ways and their action (style of running) also differs. Few are able to deliver the same level of performance on firm and heavy going. Know this and place due emphasis on it! Realize though that courses do vary, so heavy at one track might become considerably heavier than it does at another. The main factor though is:- consider the state of the going.

4. The type of race track.

• Horses for courses. How often have you heard that one? The thing is it's perfectly true, but I think it is more relevant to look at the types of track as being a more accurate statement. There are various types of race track i.e. Tight, Ultra-tight, Stiff, Galloping, Ultra-galloping, Normal, Downhill and of course the all-weather tracks. So in other words a horse that runs particularly well and wins races at a very small tight track might be unlikely to produce the same level of performance at a huge galloping track. Their very build and style of running might dictate that a big, long striding horse could do very well on a big galloping track, but not be able to cope with a tight turning track. The more unusual courses are likely to produce course specialists e.g. Chester where good form often does not work out elsewhere. So you should know your racetrack facts and characteristics. To make things easier for all my visitors, I have put a 'type of track guide' on the database pages. Click here to view.

5. Weight carried.

• The weight that a horse carries is very important, but it is just one of a number of factors. Be aware that what weight a horse carries in a handicap race has to be looked at by asking yourself, is the horse still improving or is it on the decline or has the handicapper got it up to it's limit? Another thing to remember is that horses improve with age at a fixed rate more or less equivalent to the 'official weight for age scale'. The scale shows the number of pounds by which it is deemed the average horse in each age group falls short of maturity at different dates and distances i.e. the rate of improvement varies according to the distance of the race and the time of the year. So sprinters reach their full potential much quicker than stayers and the other thing to always bear in mind is that at certain times of the year, namely for the first few months of a new season and over the slightly longer distances particularly, the newly turned 3 year olds are at a big disadvantage with their older counterparts. You will be able to see how this works by viewing the scale. To view the w.f.a.scale click here.

• In other words if you are comparing the form of a few horses in a race that ran against each other some time ago, then be aware of any improvement that a younger horse might have made in the meantime. Once again though, be carefull when comparing form, that the conditions of the upcoming race are not substantially different from the one you are looking back at!

• If you like to do your own handicapping then use the following as a guide:- only as a guide.  I do not believe one can treat weight with slide-rule precision.

For the jumps you can use 1 pound per length but be very loose with this as for lots of reasons finishing distances can be extreme with the jumpers.

6. The distance.

• Next thing is the distance which has to be suitable for a horse. Some horses have a broader range of suitable distances than do others, although most seem to have an ideal distance within perhaps a furlong or so. One can only go by past performance and of course the horse's breeding. Also once a trainer has determined the right distance for the horse he will not mess around running it in the wrong races. I believe they want to win when the horse is 'right'. If a trainer does run a horse over an unsuitable distance for whatever reason, you will be able to spot it.

7. The class of race.

• O.K. so now the horse is fit, in good form, on it's favorite going, at it's favourite type of track, fairly weighted and running over it's best distance. Now after looking at all the above factors comes the most important criteria of all I believe!

• "Class, that intangible thing that almost defies definition, controls almost positively the running of thoroughbreds! Class enables one horse to beat another no matter what the physical odds may be, what the conditions or what the distance. It is hard to define, but everybody discerns it when it is there." Those are the words of the legendary 'Pittsburgh Phil', perhaps the most successful professional gambler the world has ever known.

• So class has to be the biggest single factor in the whole thing. A top class horse can make and withstand more challenges for longer than a lower class horse. All horses have a certain level of ability to which they will progress until they have matured (about 5yrs. depending on the distance) and that's it. They should not be able to win against horses of higher class ever! (That is of course if the higher class horses have the right conditions as well). And that is what you have to look for and find. Especially the horse that runs a good race, in other words up to it's rating, and then gets dropped in class for it's next run and has all conditions right for it. (In the lower division races, horses make class jumps more easily because they are basically all low class horses).

• To help you to further grasp the difference between the classes of races, I have put tables illustrating the point, expressed in terms of secs. per mile and lengths, onto the horse racing database pages. To view these very informative tables, click here! There are also tables there for jump racing.

• Another factor which is also something to be aware of as far as class is concerned, is the classification of the race tracks here in the U.K. Click here to view.

8. How fast will they go?

• After everything else one more factor often has a huge effect on the outcome of a race and that is the pace at which the race is run. If a race is run at a false pace (perhaps slow with a sprint finish), it can produce a "shock" result. Thankfully this type of thing is more likely to occur the lower the class of race.

9. The draw, trainer, jockey etc.

• The draw bias at certain tracks can also play a big part, at some tracks in fact crucial. There are other factors e.g. the jockey and trainer form. Also sometimes the age of the horse as younger horses are generally more consistent than the older horses. Also watch out for first time blinkers, more so for sprinters as they can really get a horse to focus on the job and can make a big difference.

I have added a guide to the draw bias at the flat racecourses. Click here.

To summarize:-

1. The horse must be fit and well.
2. The horse must be in form. (careful with this).
3. The state of the prevailing going must suit the horse.
4. The type of race track must be suitable.
5. Is the horse still improving ( be aware of the w.f.a. improvement).
6. The distance must be right, although some horses might have a broader band of suitable distances than others.
7. The horse must be running against horses of similar or lower class than in it's last race. This might exclude horses that won it's last race and are progressing up the class ladder as a winner.
8. The pace of the race must be genuine. This is something you will have to estimate based on the class, distance, number of runners and if there are known pacemakers.
9. There are other factors e.g. the draw bias at the track, if relevant, and the jockey and trainer form. Whether the horse has the 'right' jockey on board. Also sometimes the age of the horse. Watch out for first time blinkers. Perhaps trainers travelling a long way to run their horse.

O.K. there it is. Follow the 9 steps and you will find many winners. One extra point that is important once you have reached this stage in the process and have got down to a shortlist of possible winners is, look for a horse that has shown the absolute will to win. If it has been in a close fought battle and fought to win, that is what you want to find. This of course tends to go hand in hand with class which was discussed earlier on. Further more, do not be fooled by the distance a horse wins by as some horses will do enough to win and then tend to idle. On the contrary, a horse winning by a large margin might just indicate a false pace.

I tend to not pay that much attention to the betting, although I do have a look at the opening prices and then again just before the race. That is purely to spot the price drifters as that does generally indicate a lack of confidence about a runners chances.

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Winners keep on winning, losers keep on losing.

Horses that won their last race, or sometimes even their second last race can very often provide a rich source of winners at their next race. So I have put down for you some factors to consider:-

To be more sure of things was the win within the last four weeks?

Is the horse early in its preparation for the season or can expect further improvement?

Is the horse rising or dropping in weight? If it's an increase, do you think it can handle the increased weight? (here you can make use of the weight per length table.) If the weight is dropping will this compensate for the rise (if any) in class? Look here!

Did the horse have a tough race and overcome any difficulties to win or did it get a soft run? Was the horse perhaps eased down before the line?

Does the horse have the same jockey or at least a regular stable jockey on board again? If not, why not? Is it because of the weight or for no reason you can see!

Does the horse have a good strike rate? Is the horse quite old and/or with a low strike rate? Horses like that every so often fluke a win but very seldom will repeat.

Did the horse run a good time for the day in it's class?

Think about what the main differences are between this race and the race the horse won. Was it a false pace that day or any draw biases involved. If it's win race was run at a good pace then look to see if there are likely pacemakers for today's race etc.

And very importantly, are the conditions right? (the going etc.).

Now as you will have noticed, everything so far has been directed primarily at flat racing. However most of what we have covered does really apply to the jumps horses as well. Rather obviously though actual jumping ability is important and that is where class will come in. Another rather important issue with the jumpers could be the track turning direction i.e. left or right turning courses. Some horses have a strong preference for one or the other. Also some tracks have more severe jumps than others and often experience on a specific track is very important. On the database pages I will put in the 'type of track' guide the course turning direction as well. To view the 'type of track' guide click here. Also on the database pages I have the 'jumping w.f.a.scale'. To view click here.

Racing on the all-weather:-

Many punters hate all weather racing because they never seem to win at it. I think that their biggest mistake is that they mix turf and all weather form. In reality the two do not mix. It is an extremely rare thing for any horse to master both codes. The punter that can identify a good all weather horse, trainer and jockey can likely clean up in AW racing.

During the autumn, punters can be thrown by turf form. A string of unplaced turf runs is all that the punter will possibly see in a horses recent form line. Yet perhaps one year earlier the horses all weather form might have been very good. The poor turf form could be hiding the true ability of the horse.

Just remember this:-There is an old saying in racing: "Never bet a horse to do something it has never done before". What that means is, you should never bet on a horse, if it is trying something for the first time.

Let me tell you about all-weather racing

A quote from a top American expert on dirt track racing said "dirt tracks have less than 10% of the resistance to shear of a turf track. In other words, grass tracks provide a much firmer footing than artificial surfaces. The roots of the grass bind the soil together and give the horse something to kick against." This may seem rather an obvious finding. But it is often the obvious truths which lead to great discoveries. It is in fact the biggest clue to the reason why horses run so differently on artificial surfaces.

On the firmer footing provided by grass, a horse can accelerate without a problem - but not on an artificial surface which provides far less traction. When a horse tries to accelerate on an artificial surface, much of its effort simply results in additional clouds of dirt being kicked out behind the horse. Additional effort does not translate so rapidly to additional speed.

Clearly, it is very hard to catch the front runners on the artificial surfaces at the AW tracks. According to the American figures, a horse that gains more ground than any other runner in the last couple of furlongs only catches the pace setters one time in eleven. On turf, the same performance closes the gap more than one time in four. Late-running horses have the additional disadvantage produced by the 'kick back' on artificial tracks. Not many horses are keen to close in on a front runner when it means getting sprayed with muck in the process.

One of Britain's top trainers on artificial surfaces, agrees: "On the all-weather tracks, it is very important that a horse is able to hold its position. Horses have much greater difficulty winning from off the pace."

If even the best late-runners have problems on artificial surfaces, because they cannot accelerate as they can on grass, it seems logical that so called 'one-paced' horses could improve significantly. Their lack of acceleration will not be so great a handicap. Winners on grass often tend to run comparatively poorly on the artificial surfaces.

• Don't bet that a horse will win on its first run on the all-weather. It normally takes a run or two before the horse gets used to the new surface.
• Concentrate your bets on the trainers who have shown they know how to train winners on the all-weather tracks, the ones who consistently appear at the head of the trainers tables at the AW tracks.
• A horse that has run well on firm ground on grass is more likely to adapt to an artificial surface than a turf runner that prefers soft going. (But remember, don't bet that ANY horse will like dirt the first time of asking.)
• At Southwell, on the five furlong course, give an edge to the horses with low draws. They are racing on the most used (and firmest) part of the track.
• Pay more attention to jockeys than you normally would. Some jockeys have really got the knack of riding the AW tracks.

In America racing folk have a saying; "pace makes the race". They know that the way to find the winner of a race is to predict the way it will be run. If you can predict which horse can take a clear lead in the early stages at the AW's, like as not, you can predict the winner. Their surveys have shown that horses that run first, second or third at the first call (first quarter mile normally) win five of every nine races on dirt tracks!

Please do not misunderstand what I am saying here, I obviously do not mean that every horse that can get to the front will win the race! It must have a good cruising speed and be able to maintain it's position over the distance in question as well as showing the necessary courage in a finish.

Running positions:-

Look for the horses that in their previous few runs made all or most of the running, or were prominent all the way. To qualify for the second category, the horses earned one of the following comments: chased leaders, always prominent, tracked leaders, in the first three early, soon prominent, soon chasing leaders, with leaders, close-up or in touch.

Discription of the AW tracks:-

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Wolverhampton:-The Fibresand track is oval, left handed and approximately 1 mile long. It is completely flat and has sharp bends. The straight run in is only 2 furlongs. The track is sharp and testing so that a horse that goes on early might not last the trip, but a horse that waits will be unlikely to have enough time to make up ground as the run in is too short. There is a very strong bias on the stands side which is extremely useful for a well placed horse that can also accelerate on the short run in. Southwell:-The Fibresand track is a left handed oval of 1 mile 2 furlongs. The long sweeping bends tests both horse and jockey. It has a straight run in of 3 furlongs. Southwell is the only all weather track to have a straight race. This is for 5f sprints. Because of the sweeping bends and longer run in than the other all weather tracks there is no need for the jockey to force the pace. Previously middle drawn runners had an advantage but the course has recently been dug up and re-laid with new Fibresand. It will take a few more months to determine where any bias may exist. Lingfield:-The all weather track is triangular and 1 mile 2 furlongs in length. It has some undulations. The straight run in is only 2 furlongs long. The track is sharp with not very well defined turns and also has a distinct camber. It is common for horses tracking the leader on the inside to be severely hampered on the final turn. The new Polytrack surface has very little kickback compared to the old Equitrack surface. Low drawn horses have a clear advantage for all distances up to and including 10f. But the 7f race seems to affect the chance of the horses drawn 1 or 2. This is probably due to the positioning of the running rail and time to the first bend being threatening at this distance. So there you have it. I hope that this article has proven both interesting and informative. It will hopefully put a whole new perspective on the all-weather racing for many of you!

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