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How to make money horse racing |
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Horse
Racing form analysis systems and methods for finding winners The
things you need to know! Plus:-Free tips for the placepot-free
daily tips How to make money horse racing, featuring form analysis systems and methods for finding winners, "value" in betting, free tips for the placepot here in England each Saturday, a tipping section for U.K. racing, a database of horse racing reference info and a section on all-weather racing. |
We will be looking at the placepot (known in
some countries as the place accumulator) as I believe it offers good overall
value. I have recently added a new tipping section for
On the horse racing database pages I have now added full statistics
for Sires which should prove to be of great help to race analysts and punters
alike.
Due to the great demand from my many regular visitors, I will
from now on offer my horse racing tips on a daily basis i.e. 6 days a week!!
How to Make Money Horse Racing is divided into 4 parts and the horse
racing database is in 6 parts.
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Part 2:-Value in betting and free tips for the placepot.
Some punters might be brilliant at picking winners but could find that
making money from backing them is totally another matter! Many punters would
think that all that matters is picking the biggest possible percentage of
winners and betting them to win i.e. the highest possible strike rate.
However it is a fact that it's far more profitable to back 20% winners at
average odds of 6-1 than 50% winners at average odds of 5-4!! And let's face it, it is no easy task to pick 50% winners. In fact I
doubt that many people do, no matter what they say! So therefore obviously it
is value that matters the most, but bear in mind that value is not
necessarily only found in win bets. For me personally I think that the placepot can represent really good value over time.
in horse racing terms
a bet is true value when the odds on offer are better than the horse's true
chances of winning. OK great statement! However the problem of course is assessing the horses true chances of winning! How can we know when we
are getting true value? Well I'm afraid there is no magic answer to that one.
It should always though, be based on your own opinion in any case. Whether we
simply go by the newspaper tipsters and assign odds to each horse based on
that or perhaps use the forecast odds given in the papers, or take the time
to study form using perhaps the Racing Post, what we are doing either
intentionally or not, is making a "book" of our own giving us what
we consider the horse's odds should be in our opinion. Then when we make our
selection and the odds on offer exceed the odds we think it should be for
that horse, then we have found value. Now in certain races we might well consider odds of
"evens", 5/4, or even "odds on" to be good value if we
think the horse is a good thing and we don't give any of the other runners
much of a chance and the offered odds on our selection are better than what
we assessed they should be. That does not mean we have to have a bet if we do
not want to back at those prices! We can be patient until good value at
longer odds comes along. Never, ever, try to find or rather expect to find
the winner of every race, it just will never happen and people go broke with
the "must have a bet" mentality. One can calculate what average
odds one has to bet at based on your individual achieved strike rate. You
must be honest with yourself though! This is why I am amazed if I hear some television presenter or
perhaps read in the racing press about not backing a particular horse which
they sometimes admit should well win, but because the odds are very short
they come up with something else because it represents "better
value". No! That is just longer odds not better value. Now of course I
know what they are getting at! My statement in the opening paragraph was
"it's far more profitable to back 20% winners at average odds of 6-1
than 50% winners at average odds of 5-4!!" That is how they are, quite
correctly, thinking. But the point is never look for an alternative selection
based on longer odds, your pick is at either acceptable odds or not! Remember,
there is no value about a loser. Surely the first essential is to have a
winner to begin with. As I said though, we do not have to accept the price if
we consider it too short a price for us to back, we can wait, but certainly
there is never any value in a loser.... Another issue that affects value is, it is
well known that some jockeys ride a lot more winners than others. That might
be because they are better jockeys, or it might be because they are riding
better horses or just riding a lot more often than the other jockeys. The
point is that some jockeys have many followers, so horses they ride, tend to have SPs which are
shorter than they otherwise would be. Some jockeys have few followers so
their mounts tend to have SPs which are longer than
they otherwise would be. So watch out for that. You might not be getting
quite the odds you should about horses ridden by the likes of Kieron Fallon. However when you identify a likely winner
and it is ridden by a competent but unfashionable jockey you might be getting
better value than you might otherwise have done. Obviously though if your
choice is ridden by one of the fashionable jockeys like Fallon, and the price
is what you think it should be, then all the better! Right, we have covered the theory of how to find the winners and what represents value in betting. Now is the time to put everything into practice. Punters will all have their own favourite type of bets, I would never try to talk anyone away from that! Personally I invest in the placepot (place accumulator as it is known in some countries), as I believe it offers very good value. The placepot should always only be evaluated over a fair period of time i.e. 6 months or preferably a year. On that basis we will definitely always show a good overall profit! Personally I also back my selections in individual races using the principles of the 'backers book' outlined further below or the exchanges. |
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Yes I want a free copy of Malcolm Boyle's new book: 'The
Art Of Bookmaking.' To celebrate the re-launch of Above All Odds Malcolm has kindly
donated his most recent publication titled "The Art Of Bookmaking".
This book currently retails in the shops at £9.99 but you can obtain an
electronic copy for FREE. It truly is a valuable insight
into the world of bookmaking. Think like
a bookmaker and learn how to compile odds for any sporting event. Download your free E-Book. |
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National
Statistics:-Trainers and Jockeys :-Please click here.
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The Saturday featured meeting-Plus!! |
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Daily Tips!!-6 days a week |
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Now as I said in the intro, I will be giving my selections for the placepot races for a particular meeting (usually the
major meeting of the day), on Saturdays here in
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I have decided
to change the format here slightly. The reason is that I find that I put my
selections on by about 12.00 on Saturday mornings, but then for my own placepot permutation I might change things quite a bit depending
on withdrawals or the going changing or significant betting movement. Also, I
do also back my selections, either to win or each way (depending on the price),
or on the exchanges. This way even if I miss the placepot,
I almost always show a profit on the day.
Therefore I think it's best that I put down my selections for each race of the selected placepot meeting and then visitors can either make it up into their own placepot, perhaps taking out any selections that they don't fancy, or adding those that they do, or they might use the selections to back horses as well. I think this is the better way of doing it!
Goughs Daily Tips gives my selections
for racing on Monday through to Saturday. This will be on a selective basis and
not necessarily an attempt to tip every race. Also I will not only look for
longer priced horses. The selections might well at times be short priced
favourites, it is up to the punter to decide whether they want to accept the
odds or not. Personally, as you will know from reading my comments at the top
of this page, I consider all winners except the very short odds-on ones to be
good value if I am confidant. However for each way bets I personally usually
only consider odds at about 5/1 and better. The
odds level that other punters consider satisfactory for e/w might well vary
from mine.
To go to the bookmakers
space and place all your bets just click here!!
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Gough Info Daily Tips-Click here |
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