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How to make money horse racing, featuring form analysis systems and methods for finding winners, "value" in betting, free tips for the placepot here in England each Saturday, a tipping section for U.K. racing, a database of horse racing reference info and a section on all-weather racing. |
We will be looking at the placepot (known in some countries as the place accumulator) as I believe it offers good overall value. I have recently added a new tipping section for U.K. racing with my daily tips. For the punters I have created a section on horse racing and sports betting where for your convenience you can place all your bets from that page. There are links to bookmakers and the exchanges.
On the horse rcing database pages I have now added full statistcs for Sires which should prove to be of great help to race analysts and punters alike.
Due to the great demand from my many regular visitors, I will from now on offer my horse racing tips on a daily basis i.e. 6 days a week!!
How to Make Money Horse Racing is divided into 4 parts and the horse racing database is in 6 parts.
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Part 2:-Value in betting and free tips for the placepot.
Some punters might be brilliant at picking winners but could find that making money from backing them is totally another matter! Many punters would think that all that matters is picking the biggest possible percentage of winners and betting them to win i.e. the highest possible strike rate. However it is a fact that it's far more profitable to back 20% winners at average odds of 6-1 than 50% winners at average odds of 5-4!! And let's face it, it is no easy task to pick 50% winners. In fact I doubt that many people do, no matter what they say! So therefore obviously it is value that matters the most, but bear in mind that value is not necessarily only found in win bets. For me personally I think that the placepot can represent really good value over time.
in horse racing terms a bet is true value when the odds on offer are better than the horse's true chances of winning. OK great statement! However the problem of course is assessing the horses true chances of winning! How can we know when we are getting true value? Well I'm afraid there is no magic answer to that one. It should always though, be based on your own opinion in any case. Whether we simply go by the newspaper tipsters and assign odds to each horse based on that or perhaps use the forecast odds given in the papers, or take the time to study form using perhaps the Racing Post, what we are doing either intentionally or not, is making a "book" of our own giving us what we consider the horse's odds should be in our opinion. Then when we make our selection and the odds on offer exceed the odds we think it should be for that horse, then we have found value. Now in certain races we might well consider odds of "evens", 5/4, or even "odds on" to be good value if we think the horse is a good thing and we don't give any of the other runners much of a chance and the offered odds on our selection are better than what we assessed they should be. That does not mean we have to have a bet if we do not want to back at those prices! We can be patient until good value at longer odds comes along. Never, ever, try to find or rather expect to find the winner of every race, it just will never happen and people go broke with the "must have a bet" mentality. One can calculate what average odds one has to bet at based on your individual achieved strike rate. You must be honest with yourself though! This is why I am amazed if I hear some television presenter or perhaps read in the racing press about not backing a particular horse which they sometimes admit should well win, but because the odds are very short they come up with something else because it represents "better value". No! That is just longer odds not better value. Now of course I know what they are getting at! My statement in the opening paragraph was "it's far more profitable to back 20% winners at average odds of 6-1 than 50% winners at average odds of 5-4!!" That is how they are, quite correctly, thinking. But the point is never look for an alternative selection based on longer odds, your pick is at either acceptable odds or not! Remember, there is no value about a loser. Surely the first essential is to have a winner to begin with. As I said though, we do not have to accept the price if we consider it too short a price for us to back, we can wait, but certainly there is never any value in a loser.... Another issue that affects value is, it is well known that some jockeys ride a lot more winners than others. That might be because they are better jockeys, or it might be because they are riding better horses or just riding a lot more often than the other jockeys. The point is that some jockeys have many followers, so horses they ride, tend to have SPs which are shorter than they otherwise would be. Some jockeys have few followers so their mounts tend to have SPs which are longer than they otherwise would be. So watch out for that. You might not be getting quite the odds you should about horses ridden by the likes of Kieron Fallon. However when you identify a likely winner and it is ridden by a competent but unfashionable jockey you might be getting better value than you might otherwise have done. Obviously though if your choice is ridden by one of the fashionable jockeys like Fallon, and the price is what you think it should be, then all the better! Right, we have covered the theory of how to find the winners and what represents value in betting. Now is the time to put everything into practice. Punters will all have their own favourite type of bets, I would never try to talk anyone away from that! Personally I invest in the placepot (place accumulator as it is known in some countries), as I believe it offers very good value. The placepot should always only be evaluated over a fair period of time i.e. 6 months or preferably a year. On that basis we will definitely always show a good overall profit! Personally I also back my selections in individual races using the principles of the 'backers book' outlined further below or the exchanges. |
Yes I want a free copy of Malcolm Boyle's new book: 'The Art Of Bookmaking.' To celebrate the re-launch of AboveAllOdds Malcolm has kindly donated his most recent publication titled "The Art Of Bookmaking". This book currently retails in the shops at £9.99 but you can obtain an electronic copy for FREE. It truly is a valuable insight into the world of bookmaking. Think like a bookmaker and learn how to compile odds for any sporting event. Download your free E-Book. |
Click here to download. |
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Today we feature:-Cheltenham
The Track characteristics:-Class 'A' left-handed, galloping track. (stiff)
Furthest Travellers (200+ miles)
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1st Time Blinkers:-
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Now as I said in the intro, I will be giving my selections for the placepot races for a particular meeting (usually the major meeting of the day), on Saturdays here in England. The selections will be on-line by 12:00pm. on Race day mornings. I will do updates later on race days if necessary. 
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I have decided to change the format here slightly. The reason is that I find that I put my selections on by about 12.00 on Saturday mornings, but then for my own placepot permutation I might change things quite a bit depending on withdrawals or the going changing or significant betting movement. Also, I do also back my selections, either to win or each way (depending on the price), or on the exchanges. This way even if I miss the placepot, I almost always show a profit on the day.
Therefore I think it's best that I put down my selections for each race of the selected placepot meeting and then visitors can either make it up into their own placepot, perhaps taking out any selections that they don't fancy, or adding those that they do, or they might use the selections to back horses as well. I think this is the better way of doing it!
To go to the bookmakers space and place all your bets just click here!!
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12.50- | 9-1 | 5-16-14 |
1.25- | 5 | 1-5 |
2.00- | 5-4-1-6 | 6-1-10 |
2.35- | 19-12-14-16 | 16-14-18-6 |
3.10- | 6 | 2-1-5 |
3.45- | 20-19 | 7-13-5-10 |
Today we had 1 winner and 3 placed.
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Goughs Daily Tips gives my selections for racing on Monday through to Saturday. This will be on a selective basis and not necessarily an attempt to tip every race. Also I will not only look for longer priced horses. The selections might well at times be short priced favourites, it is up to the punter to decide whether they want to accept the odds or not. Personally, as you will know from reading my comments at the top of this page, I consider all winners except the very short odds-on ones to be good value if I am confidant. However for each way bets I personally usually only consider odds at about 5/1 and better. The odds level that other punters consider satisfactory for e/w might well vary from mine.
To go to the bookmakers space and place all your bets just click here!!
When I put down prices next to a horse, it is the best price that was available to the best of my knowledge.
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Great Leighs:-
Hereford:-
Market Rasen:-
Wincanton:-
Thursday 20th:-6 winners and 11 placed.
Wednesday 19th:-8 winners and 8 placed.
Tuesday 18th:-5 winners and 2 placed.
Monday 17th:-7 winners and 2 placed.
The past week:-35 winners and 44 placed.
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For those punters that like to back a horse 'on the nose', whether it be for a win only or each-way, there is no reason why you cannot back a number of horses in a race. In fact you could back all the horses that you think have a chance of winning. The thing is though, your bets have to be balanced, in other words you must make a 'Backers Book'. You will in fact be working on similar principles as the bookmakers. For example, if you fancied the winning chances of four horses in a race, it would be pointless betting thus:-
Bet | Odds | Horse | Return on win | Gain/loss on outlay |
£10 | 11/4 | Horse 1 | £37.50 | -£2.50 |
£10 | 12/1 | Horse 2 | £130.00 | +£90.00 |
£10 | 20/1 | Horse 3 | £210.00 | +£170.00 |
£10 | 20/1 | Horse 4 | £210.00 | +£170.00 |
£40-outlay |
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This is clearly not the way to do it. However if you did it the following way, it would not matter which horse won, as you would reap an identical profit irrespective. From the Table of Odds & Percentages (click here to view), total up the percentage probabilities for the four horses (44% in this case). You would lay out your £40 like this:-Total stake £40 on horses at 11/4 (26.7%), 12/1 (7.7%), 20/1 (4.8%), 20/1 (4.8%). Backer's % of the book is 44%. Work out your staking amount like this:- Total £outlay multiply by % probability of the horses odds divide by total % probability of the 'Backers Book'.
So therefore you place your bets so:-
Outlay total was £40.00 so profit if any horse wins is £51.00 (rounded off). Obviously these days with exchange betting, the punters have more options with their betting. So you might cover yourself by laying horses on the exchanges rather than backing numerous horses in a race. That is entirely up to the individual. However if you do prefer to back horses instead of laying them on the exchanges, then the above method is the way to go. Also I am sure you will make use of the Table of Odds & Percentages shown at the foot of this page with all your betting! |
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